Forecast #2: Will Clean Air Become a Luxury/How Pollution Impacts Health

A) Articles
http://www.npr.org/2011/12/07/143214875/clean-air-a-luxury-in-beijings-pollution-zone
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-03/china-tropical-island-lures-wealthy-homebuyers-fleeing-pollution

B) Analysis

     In the first article, Louisa Lim describes a shocking reality of living in Beijing. Everyday, she checks an app on her phone that's linked to the air pollution monitor at the U.S. Embassy to find out what the Air Quality Index is, and it's not uncommon for it to be at a level considered dangerous to human health. Experts have estimated that consistent exposure to the pollution in Beijing could take up to 6 years off of someone's life.

     "Whenever the levels hit "very unhealthy," we keep the kids indoors and refuse to let them take part in outdoor activities, no matter how much whining might ensue. When to wear a pollution mask, when to stay indoors, it's all become crucial knowledge, even for our 4-year-old." - Louisa Lim

(Beijing on a smoggy day vs. a clear day)

       In 2009, Chinese officials claimed that the Air Quality Index readings were causing undesirable "social consequences" and "confusion" among the public, and went as far as to ask the Embassy to limit the access to the data to only American citizens. Fortunately, that didn't end up happening, but the existence of these levels has placed a lot of pressure on the government to take some kind of environmental action.

     "Today in China clean air, clean water, safe foods, kind hearts and the truth have all become luxury items"- tweet from a Chinese twitter user

     After giving some thought to the amount of time her children spend indoors, Louisa Lim decided to have an expert do an indoor Air Quality Index reading. She had been expecting the results to be bad, but they were even worse than she imagined. Inside her living room, the air quality was five times higher than the level considered safe by the U.S. EPA. After doing this story, Louisa was so concerned about her family's health that she spent approximately $3000 on air purifiers, a cost that is out of reach for most Chinese citizens.

     The second article is a feature on wealthy Chinese citizens spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on homes in Sanya on Hainan, a tropical island in the South China Sea. The biggest reason that people are suddenly moving here is because it has some of the cleanest air in China.

     The fact is, clean air has already become a luxury good in China. But will other countries heed the warnings and change environmental policies before it's too late? 

C) Bullet Answers 
1) Global/National/Local Impact: Pollution around the globe could become a major issue if it continues to get worse. Citizens may start to leave China, looking to move to other countries for a healthier life. If other countries let their pollution levels get as bad as China's, people from all over might start moving in search of clean air, potentially leaving some countries as polluted wastelands. Now is the time for governments to take environmental issues seriously and take action. On a personal level, I'll be making sure that I pay attention to candidates' stances on environmental issues when voting in the upcoming election.

2) Impact Over Time: Within the next 2 months to 2 years, hopefully people will become more aware and educate themselves about environmental issues and vote for government officials who are serious about making changes that will have positive impacts on pollution/global warming/etc.
In 20 years, I definitely think that the environment will be a much greater topic in the government, and there will probably be some countries, especially in Asia, that need to evacuate due to extremely dangerous pollution levels. 

3) Positive Outcomes: Changing views on the importance of doing everything that we can when it comes to reducing pollution, along with getting air purifiers to low income citizens of China and other areas of heavy pollution.
4) Negative Outcomes: Shortened lifespans, countries becoming polluted wastelands, and overpopulation in countries that have clean air
5) Region of the Futue: Bio Tech/Human Tech

Questions:
Are you concerned about changes of our air quality in the U.S. over the next 10 years?
Would you leave the U.S. if air quality became a concern?
Do you think that expensive air purifiers will become a necessary purchase for homeowners in future generations?

Forecast 2 — The air inside our homes

A copy of the article / resource / link / book title, author, chapter etc.

Looking for some dialogue on air conditioning and/or heating, I found this passage in the Ascent of Humanity:

http://brakethecycle.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2013/02/The-Ascent-of-Humanity.pdf

"Why is the technological fix so attractive? Because from the short-term perspective, it really does work. The first digging stick really did make it easier to obtain roots. A cup of coffee really does make us feel energized. A good stiff drink really does make the pain go away. Air conditioning makes us feel cooler on a hot day. Cars get us there faster. Fertilizer boosts the yield. With each stage of construction, the Tower rises higher. See, it’s working! We’re getting closer to the sky.
Invisible at first is the fact that the fix is a trap. At the end of the day, the coffee exhausts our adrenal glands and makes us more tired, not less. The air conditioning habituates us to a narrow range of comfort, trapping us indoors. Cars inevitably bring more roads, more cars, and more time in transit. Food production technology brings population increases, and eventually less security and more anxiety."

Looking for the solution, I found:

http://permaculturenews.org/2014/05/16/keeping-cool-without-air-conditioning-part-i-the-cool-pool/

"Passive cooling can rely on a wide range of cooling strategies, including solar control, ventilation, evaporation and radiant cooling. The goal is to modify the microclimate to provide comfort for occupants. Comfort may come from evaporative cooling, conductive cooling or radiant cooling.
Ventilation by opening windows and capturing cooling breezes is often sufficient to provide comfort in temperate areas. Ventilation can also be used to cool off thermal mass when outside temperatures drop at night to store coolness for use during the following day. Evaporation of water in a fountain, cool pool or roof pond can be used to provide powerful cooling. Radiant cooling to the cool night sky during the day can add additional cooling – and was used to make ice in ancient Iran. These strategies can provide sufficient cooling for full comfort in virtually any climate. Passive cooling can eliminate or minimize use of electricity while providing comfortable and healthy conditions.
The most powerful cooling system is a ‘cool pool’. The cool pool is a pool of water over the room that is in thermal contact with the room below but is fully shaded from the sun during the day and throughout the cooling season. The pool stays cool primarily by radiating heat to the cool night sky and evaporation."

Your analysis of the article in regards to its impact of the future

The dominant cultural narrative tells us that air conditioning is a necessity. When faced with a hot room, we seek out the nearest air conditioned space. It may someday be necessary to consider what spaces truly need it, and to what extent, and how we can use passive cooling to create temperate buildings as a longterm solution. 

The global impact, national impact, and local / personal impact

The manufacturing of air conditioners inevitably have hidden environmental costs, concentrated in poorer nations, where mining and production is likely to take place.

Nationally? "Two-thirds of all homes in the United States have air conditioners. Air conditioners use about 5% of all the electricity produced in the United States, at an annual cost of more than $11 billion to homeowners. As a result, roughly 100 million tons of carbon dioxide are released into the air each year -- an average of about two tons for each home with an air conditioner."

Personally, I only seek out air refuge in buildings that are running one anyway. I do not use an air conditioner in my own space, and this summer I chose not to use fans, as well. Having a lot of windows in my room is helpful, though.

Forecast the range of impact over the short term (the next 2 months to 2 years), to the long term (next 20 years to 20 + decades).

Short term: I imagine no significant change will occur. Perhaps they will be powered by solar in the future, or manufactured to be more "efficient."
Long term: Will air conditioners become more taboo as climate change occurs? Perhaps passive cooling will take over.


What could you do, or could be done to create the greatest positive impact on the future

Consider what you really need and reduce usage to a comfortable level. Seek out other spaces for cooling. Spend time outdoors in all seasons, and learn to enjoy and dress for the extremes.

What could you do, or could be done to create the greatest negative impact on the future

Let's all run air conditioners 24/7 on max blast, keeping our homes and workspaces at a brisk 65 degrees in the dead of summer.


“Which region of the future” does this related closest most to or does this fit in between – or perhaps a region of the future you’d like to define for yourself.

"Eco-tech." Elements include: conscious non-consumption and limiting of technology — shifting to naturally provided ways of fixing problems.

Questions

What are the barriers to implementing passive cooling?
What are your personal barriers in regards to this topic?
Other comments?

Scott Werner, The Air Out There!

Forecast #2 Air: Bounce Words "On" "Other" Relation to Air

Continuing from my previous forecast and using "air" as movement of space, I have related it to the words "On" and "Other". As the puzzle pieces begin to fit and organic growth of inter-related terms I am focused on finding their relations.

On: On movement or flow, mechanical, invisible, I have chosen Solar Wind and Gravity or Anti-Gravity in the case of the protection and propulsion system. I forecast that in the future we will be able to create and build ships in orbit that will have no need for rocket fuel. In fact through my research I have found that they are already test solar wind foils or sails. This is just the first step. In that same article they mention solar threads that not only get propulsion from electrons hitting them from solar wind but also gather electricity. I think that this is the future of space travel on a cheaper budget and once perfected could be even faster than our modern day rocket systems by using energy around our solar system that is just being lost.

Anti-gravity generators will give us a replicated shield that Earth already provides us but can also be used to "bounce" off other planets gravity in times of secondary propulsion. The further out we get from the sun the less solar wind their will be and we can used the stored surplus energy to run that generator and other systems within the ship.

Other: I refer to biomimicry with this term. We need to create new forms and types of ships that can be reused multiple times that afford flexibility and the best ways to capture solar flare energy. While also keeping in mind the spherical form that earth has with it's gravitational force. Nature has already shown us better ways of doing things. The worm inches it's way around by using it's flexible body, this could be used for a design of how to store captured electricity from solar wind within an outer flexible membrane. That could also protect us in a similar fashion as the Faraday Cage. Using the dragonfly wings as fold out solar sails to use solar wind for propulsion and have wires to capture the electricity to feed into the membrane storage. Lastly using the shape of the lady bug as an optimum spherical form for anti-gravity shield and propulsion system. Plus the solar wind sails or threads could retract into a protective shell for landing on other planets or astroids.

The anti-gravity system could also be used as way to break free of other planet's and astroid's gravitational pull. 

References and links

http://science.howstuffworks.com/faraday-cage.htm

http://sciencenordic.com/sailing-solar-winds

a very technical video on anti-gravity

another option for solar capture is the solar wind turbine, a video on how to make your own

A more indepth video presentation on the future of space exploration using solar sails

Through research I found that dragonfly's wings may also be ideal for manueverability as per asknature.org. However this is currently up for discussion

http://www.asknature.org/strategy/58328c9b27cb340263dc77f0d2bd9081

Global Impact:
The global impact is significant in that as a global economy we will have more efficient ways of obtaining resources that are becoming scarce on the earth. This will also assist in discovering more about our planets and solar system and maybe even help branch out colonies elsewhere to avoid more overpopulation on Earth

National Impact:
The United States could be the leader in joining forces with the worlds top scientific communites in acheiving a truly universal goal. We could spend more money on the science, biology, and math in our childrens educations while inspiring artistic creativity to think outside the box, or look deeper in the box to see what has already been solved.

Local/Personal Impact:

I love space and science fiction! This is getting us closer to making what we create on screen as a reality. I myself want to see commercial space exploration and to be able to visit other planets. Learning that some of these ideas are becoming realistic possiblities inspires me and I want to know more. Being a geek has never been more popular!


Questions:
What do you think of using solar flares which can be extremely deadly to us as a way of propulsion and electricity generation?
Do you think the world's governments will ever be able to work together to help make this a reality?

What other biomimicry could be used for propulsion in space or energy storage?

Tech: Biotech, ScienceTech, SocialTech

Brought to you by Scott Werner

Futures Forcast #2 Air "Future Generations"

A) Article

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/07/05/video-15-year-old-climate-warrior-address-un-calls-climate-change-human-rights-issue

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/meet-the-kids-suing-obama

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/08/15/21-youth-activists-sue-obama-administration-and-us-government-over-climate-change-161405

B) Analysis

Meet Xiuhtezcatl Martinez. The 15-year-old climate activist from Colorado who just teamed up with 20 other young people to try to sue the United States Government for inaction on climate change. His message to our leaders is loud and clear: “The Federal Government has known for decades that CO2 pollution from burning fossil fuels was causing global warming and dangerous climate change,” said Xiuhtezcatl in a press release announcing the suit on August 12 2015. “It also knew that continuing to burn fossil fuels would destabilize our climate system, significantly harming my generation and generations to come. Despite knowing these dangers, Defendants did nothing to prevent this harm. In fact, my Government increased the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to levels it knew were unsafe.” Xiuhtezcatl Roske-Martinez, who was raised in the Aztec tradition, spoke earnestly to the United Nations General Assembly June 29 challenging the representatives to make “great decisions,” and take immediate action on climate change. “What's at stake right now is the existence of my generation," he said in his speech. "In the last 20 years of negotiations, almost no agreements have been made on a bonding climate recovery plan," he said. A long-time climate warrior, Martinez began speaking publicly on the topic when he was six years old. In his speech, he said that climate change is "the defining issue of our time," and "a human rights issue.”

Xiuhtezcatl Martinezis the perfect example of how the next generation is already working to chanllange and change our relationship with Air and Climate change. The truth is we already have the alternative technology to stop burning Fossil fuels and keep our air clean. The only thing standing in our way is the system, our government, and those generations that don't care or understand about the importance of taking care of our air. The Future of our Air is not about developing crazy new technologies, its about actually using the clean energy options we already have. Xiuhtezcatl Martinez represents the future of air, the next generation, the only thing that may actually save our planet.

C) Bullet Answers

1. Global/ National/ Local/ Personal Impacts:  Xiuhtezcatl Martinez's speech to the united nations received worldwide press attention. Articles about the climate warriors of the future generation can be seen all over the internet. Hopefully this will wake up our policy makers and voting majority in countries worldwide to what needs to be done in order to reverse climate change and clean our air. As the youth director or Earth Gardens, Xiuhtezcatl Martinez has established a worldwide platform for youth to get involved and shake things up in the system.

2.) Impact Over Time:
2 Months/2 Years: Hopeful press coverage and awareness of these youth activists and their suing Obama and speaking of the UN will continue to grow. We could even see policies and fossil fuel laws become more strict worldwide in this time frame, if this counties. 

20 Years: Future Generations are going to be the policy makers eventually. Is it so hard to believe that in this future policies will reflect the realities of our need for environmental protection of our air?

3.) Positive Outcome:Clean air globally, reduction of global warming and climate change.

4.) Negative Outcome: We will actually be able to see Dowtown L.A. when the smog clears, yikes.

5.) Region of the Future:Human tech  

D) Questions for others

1. What do you think of Xiuhtezcatl Martinez suing the U.S. Government ?
2. Is this kind of protest effective?
3. Are clean air and alternative energy sources something you and your peers feel passionate about?
4. Do you ever discuss these subjects among friends?

Forecast #2: "Put a tree on it" Back to the Basics

A.) Article(s):

Tree Covered Apartment Building Cleans a Polluted City Block
15 Houseplants for Improving Indoor Air Quality
Salt Crystal Lamps and How They Work


B.) Analysis:

This isn't rocket science, this is human science. When thinking of the concept of air multiplex key films/movies actually came to mind. The Lorax, Fern Gully, Avatar, and Wall-e. These films all cover a very important topic that we still choose to ignore today. Air quality: for now, and more importantly the future. They continue to bring up the subject of taking action now. Perhaps one of my favorite quotes from Emma Watson can be implemented into many different subjects, but fits perfectly for the topic of air pollution: "If not me, who? If not now, when?" Yes, young Watson was speaking of women's rights when using this quote, but I find that it is applicable to so much more. 

These articles are simple. This is no huge, "ah ha!" moment, if anything it falls into the category of a "oh duh!" moment. We constantly forget our roots. Quite literally, we forget that without plants, trees and other organisms, we fail to survive. The movement, to Put a Tree on It (playing off Put a Bird on It from Portlandia) is a movement I feel is too often ignored, but one of the most simple solutions to air pollution, and continued air quality. 

Its simple: Plant more trees, plants and other naturally occurring minerals to clean the air. We need them, and they need us. There are hundreds of guides online for simple gardens for patios, small apartment living, large landscape and simple indoor small houseplants. For each of these there are dozens of minerals that are equally as useful, the example I used was the salt crystal lamps. 

For those of you who have no idea what "Put a Bird on It" is, educate yourself and have a laugh. :) 

C.) Bullet Answers:

1. Global/ National/ Local/ Personal Impacts:

The impact globally could potentially help high impact areas of need such as Tokyo and Japan. Nationally this could mean the implementation of more wild life reserves, parks and home gardens. Locally Minneapoilis does an amazing job with the farmers market and having green spaces. If each person were to implement plants on the deck, patio, indoor space or window space the air would drastically improve not only air quality but the mood of the person(s) living there. 

2.) Impact Over Time:

2 Months/2 Years: If each person owning a patio where to have a simple house plant on their patio, deck or the inside of their home, air quality would improve drastically. 23% of toxins in the air currently would be naturally filtered/ recycled through photosynthesis.  

20 Years: With green design in mind and (hopeful) green houses, for individual and large plots of people our opportunity to coincide with mother nature is endless. If we don't do this NOW we could very potentially have a situation such as Avatar, or Wall-e on our hands. (looking to other planets for substances of survival: ex: food, water, air) 

3.) Positive Outcome:

Clean air for all! Learning about new spices of plants and harvesting the goods of the earth while maintaining a healthy balance of give and take. (Currently there is too much taking and not enough giving.) 

4.) Negative Outcome: 

Plants take over! Although, even this is not a negative outcome, unless plants mutate and start feeding on humans like Little Shop of Horrors, there is no possible negative outcome from having clean, naturally filtered air. 

5.) Region of the Future: 

Nature/ Bio Tech/ Human Tech.